Pre-Mortem Analysis
Pre-Mortem Analysis is a managerial practice arising from [[Inversion]]. A project team meets before embarking on a project to imagine that it has failed. They then discuss what could have led to that failure and how they might avoid it.
It overcomes optimism bias and encourages honest risk assessment.
The Process
- Set scenario: “It’s one year from now, the project failed completely”
- Brainstorm failure modes: List all possible reasons
- Prioritize risks: Most likely, biggest impact, easiest to prevent
- Develop mitigation: Prevention strategies and contingency plans
Why It Works
- Overcomes optimism bias by forcing consideration of failure
- Creates psychological safety for honest assessment
- Identifies problems proactively before they occur
Related Concepts
- [[Inversion]] — thinking from the opposite perspective
- [[Decision Document Framework]] — pre-mortem as component
- [[Right No vs Wrong Yes]]
Source: [[Decision Document Framework by Arnav Kumar]]
Linked References
- [[RICE Framework]]
A prioritization framework for evaluating features and projects using Reach, Impact, Confidence, and …
- [[Analytical Data]]
Data that helps humans make better decisions.
- [[Architecturally-significant Requirement (ASR)]]
A requirement that measurably influences a software system’s architecture.
- [[Architecture Decision (AD)]]
A software design choice that addresses an architecturally-significant requirement.
- [[Avoid Stupidity]]
Avoiding stupidity is easier than trying to be brilliant. Focus on eliminating failure points.
- [[Design of Experiments (DoE)]]
A formal way to design a task that explains the variation under conditions.
- [[Inversion]]
Looking at a problem or decision from the opposite point of view to avoid failure rather than …
- [[Decision Document Framework by Arnav Kumar]]
Arnav Kumar’s framework for writing comprehensive decision documents to get faster approvals.