Pre-Mortem Analysis
A technique to identify potential failures before they happen by imagining the project has already failed.
Pre-Mortem Analysis is a managerial practice arising from [[Inversion]]. A project team meets before embarking on a project to imagine that it has failed. They then discuss what could have led to that failure and how they might avoid it.
It overcomes optimism bias and encourages honest risk assessment.
The Process
- Set scenario: “It’s one year from now, the project failed completely”
- Brainstorm failure modes: List all possible reasons
- Prioritize risks: Most likely, biggest impact, easiest to prevent
- Develop mitigation: Prevention strategies and contingency plans
Why It Works
- Overcomes optimism bias by forcing consideration of failure
- Creates psychological safety for honest assessment
- Identifies problems proactively before they occur
Related Concepts
- [[Inversion]] — thinking from the opposite perspective
- [[Decision Document Framework]] — pre-mortem as component
- [[Right No vs Wrong Yes]]
Source: [[Decision Document Framework by Arnav Kumar]]
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